Filed under: 法克阅读 |
Posted on



FAREEDZAKARIA, HOST, “FAREED ZAKARIA GPS”: Do you feel that the globaleconomy is, at this point, stable and strong? Or do you worry a lot that there is a danger of the so-called doubledip, that the United States, in particular, could go back into a recession?


PREMIERWEN JIABAO, CHINA (through translator): Well, objectively speaking, I think the world economy is recovering, althoughthe process of recovery is a slow and torturous one. People may not have the same view on thismatter, but I believe we will learn a lesson from the reality. I hope that there will be a quick recovery ofthe U.S. economy, because, after all, the U.S. economy is the largest in theworld.

Ihave taken note of the recent policies and measures taken by President Obama,including the program of doubling the United States exports and the massiveinvestment in infrastructural development. I think these passes and measures are the ones on the right track, movingin the right direction. Although theycame a little bit late, they still came in time.

This reminds me of the time when I tookthe big decision of advancing a massive stimulus package in China. Back then, people had different viewsconcerning this policy. But now, theprogress has shown that our stimulus package is a successful one.


ZAKARIA: Yourstimulus package was 10 times larger, as a percentage of your GDP, than — thanthe U.S. one. It was an extraordinaryprogram.

Is there a worry that it has — it has produced a bubble in China,in real estate? Are there dangers of inflation because the government spent somuch money? And what happens now that that stimulus is going to wear off? Therewill be less and less government spending.

Z:你的经济刺激计划,从占GDP的百分比来说,是美国计划的十倍, 真是一个异乎寻常的举动。是否存在这样的担心,如此巨量的投资将在中国的房地产市场产生泡沫?政府投资了这么多钱,是否会带来通货膨胀呢?现在投资计划减弱了,有没有什么影响?政府的钱会不会不够?

WEN: From what yousaid, I think you have not seen our stimulus package in its full or in itsentirety. I would like to say that ourstimulus package has four key components.

The first is massive public spending, structural tax cutsand infrastructural development.

The second is the adjustment and upgrading of industrial structurein China.

The third is scientific and technological innovation and thedevelopment of emerging industries with strategic significance.

The fourth is the improvement of social safety net. The $4 trillionRMB Yuan investment does not all come from the government.

Public finance only accounts for $1.18 trillion RMB Yuan andthe rest will come from the non-public sector and fundraising from financialmarkets.

The implementation of the stimulus package has insured the continuanceof steady and relatively fast economic growth in China.

It has helped maintain the good momentum of China’s economicdevelopment in the past 30 years and it has helped us avoid major fluctuationsin the process of China’s modernization because of a severe external shock.

At the same time, it has laid a solid foundation for future developmentof the Chinese economy. We are on highalert against the challenge that you referred to in your question.

Let me make three points. First, there is a possibility of inflationin China.

That is why we have formulated the task of skillfully managethe relations between maintaining steady and relatively fast economic development,structural adjustment and managing inflation expectations. This is at the core of China’s macroeconomiccontrol.

I do have worry for the management of inflation expectationsin China. And that is something that Ihave been trying very hard to manage appropriately and well, because I believecorruption and inflation will have an adverse impact on stability of power inour country. And these two both concernthe trust and support of people in the government. And this is the perspective that I see theissue of inflation in China.

Second, with implementation of the stimulus package, thereare fiscal and financial risks at the level of local governments. We have some financing vehicles of localgovernments. They have some debts.

But this is not a new problem that took place after thebreak — outbreak of the financial crisis. Rather, this already came into being back in the 1980s.

Now, with thefinancing platforms of local governments in place, they have accumulated atotal debt about $7.6 trillion RMB Yuan.

And I can say that this debt, at the local level, is still withina range that we can manage. But it is importantthat we appropriately handle this matter to ensure that the debts at local governments’level will not bring about risks in our public finance and in the financialsector.

The ratio of budget deficit in China’s total GDP is within 3percent. The total debts in China versus GDP’s ratio is within 20 percentrange.

That is to say, it’s still in the range that we can manage.

The third point is a more important one, that is, all our investmentnow must be conducive to our economic structural adjustment, not thecontrary. This concerns our long-termdevelopment prospects and therefore is of high importance.

ZAKARIA: May I ask you what lesson you have drawn from the financialcrisis? Have you lost faith in American macroeconomic management?

A Chinese friend said to me, he said, “We were like thestudents in class and we would always listen to what the Americans would tellus.” And now we look up, and wethink, “Maybe the teacher actually didn’t know what he was talking about.”


WEN: In the face of the financial crisis, any person who hasa sense of responsibility towards the country, and towards the entire humanrace should learn lessons from the financial crisis. As far as I’m concerned,the biggest lesson that I have drawn from the financial crisis is that, inmanaging the affairs of a country, it’s important to pay close attention toaddressing the structural problems in the economy.

China has achieved enormous progress in its development, winningacclaim around the world. Yet, I was one of the first ones to argue that oureconomic development still lacks balance, coordination, and sustainability.This financial crisis has reinforced my view on this point. On the one hand, wemust tackle the financial crisis; on the other, we must continue to address ourown problems. And we must do these two tasks well at the same time, and this isa very difficult one.

China has a vast domestic market. And there is a great potentialin China’s domestic demand. China is at a stage of accelerated urbanization andindustrialization. We can rely on stimulating domestic demand to stabilize andfurther grow the Chinese economy. This requires us that we must seize theopportunities, speed up our development, and stabilize the Chinese economy.

And on that basis, we must take a long term perspective to addressall these structural challenges in our economy. As far as the US economy isconcerned, I always believe that the U.S. economy is solidly based, not only ina material sense, but more importantly, the United States has the strength ofscientific and technological talent, and managerial expertise.

It has accumulated a wealth of experience in its economic developmentover the past…more than 200 years. In spite of the twists and turns, theUnited States, I believe, will tide over the crisis and difficulties, and wemust have confidence in the prospects of the U.S. economy.

The recovery and further growth of the largest economy in the world-that is, the U.S. economy-is in the interest of the recovery and stabilityof the world economy.


ZAKARIA: You — youwrote an article about your old boss, Hu Yaobang, which I was very struckby. In it, you praised him. Do you think, in retrospect, that Hu Yaobangwas a very good leader of China?


WEN: Yes. I think I have given a fair assessment of thehistory of this person. He made his owncontributions to China’s reform and opening up. I want to make the following three points.

First, he vigorously advanced the debate surrounding the criteriain judging what truth is. And throughthat, he has contributed to the effort of freeing people’s minds.

Second, irrespective of various resistance, he took steps tofree a large number of officials and cadres who were wronged in the CulturalRevolution.

And, third, he himself took actions to advance China’sreform and opening up.


ZAKARIA: You – youspeak, in your speeches, about how Chinais not yet a strong and creative nation in terms of its economy.

Can you be a strong and creative nation with so many restrictionson freedom of expression, with the Internet being censored? Don’t you need to open all that up if youwant true creativity?


WEN: I believefreedom of speech is indispensable for any country, a country in the course of development and acountry that has become strong. Freedomof speech has been incorporated into the Chinese constitution.
I don’t think you know all about China on this point. In China, there are about 400 millionInternet users and 800 million mobile phone subscribers.

They can access the Internet to express their views,including critical views. I often logonto the Internet and I have read sharp critical comments on the work of thegovernment, on the Internet and also there are commendable words about the workof the government.

I often say that we should not only let people have the freedomof speech. We, more importantly, must create conditions to let them criticizethe work of the government. And it isonly when there is the supervision and critical oversight from the people that thegovernment will be in a position to do an even better job and employees ofgovernment departments will be the true public servants of the people.

All these must be conducted within the range allowed by the constitutionand the laws.

So that the country will have a normal order. And that is all the more necessary for such alarge country as China, with 1.3 billion people.


ZAKARIA: PremierWen – since we are being honest, when Icome to China and I try to use the Internet, there are many sites that areblocked. It is difficult to getinformation. Any opinion that seems tochallenge the political primacy of the, of the party is not allowed.

HuYaobang, for example, was not somebody who could be mentioned in the – in”The China Daily” until your own article appeared. It just feels to me like all theserestrictions — this — the vast apparatus that monitors the Internet are –are going to make it difficult for your people to truly be creative and totruly do what it seems you wish them to do.


WEN: I believe I and all the Chinese people havesuch a conviction that China will make continuous progress and the people’s wishesfor and needs for democracy and freedom are irresistible. I hope that you will be able to gradually seethe continuous progress of China.


ZAKARIA: You havegiven a – a series of very interesting speeches in the last few weeks — thelast few months. I was particularlystruck by one you gave in Shenzhen, where you said, “Along with economicreform, we must keep doing political reform.” This is a point you made inour last interview. But a lot of peopleI know in China — Chinese people say there has been economic reform over thelast six or seven years, but there has not been much political reform.

What do you say to people who listen to your speeches andthey say, “We love everything Wen Jiabao says, but we don’t see theactions of political reform?”


WEN: Actually, thisis a viewpoint that was put forward by Mr. Deng Xiaoping a long time ago.

And I think anyone who has a sense of responsibility for hiscountry should have deep thinking about this topic and put what he believesinto action.

I have done some deeper thinking about this topic since we lastmet. My view is that a political party,after it becomes a ruling party, shouldbe somewhat different from the one when it was struggling for power.

The biggest difference should be that this political party shouldact in accordance with the constitution and the law.

The policies and propositions of a political party can be translatedinto parts of the constitution and the laws through appropriate legalprocedures. All political parties,organizations and all people should abide by the constitution and laws withoutany exception. They must all act inaccordance with the constitution and laws.

I see that as a defining feature of modern political systemdevelopment.

I have summed up my political ideals into the following foursentences.

To let everyone lead a happy life with dignity. To let everyone feel safe and secure. To let the society be one with equity andjustice and to let everyone have confidence in the future.

In spite of the various discussions and views in the societyand in spite of some resistance, I will act in accordance with these idealsunswervingly and advance, within the realm of my capabilities, politicalrestructuring.

I would like to tell you the following two sentences to reinforcemy case on this or my view on this point, that is, I will not fall in spite ofa strong wind and harsh rain and I will not yield till the last day of my life.


ZAKARIA:The currency issue is a difficult one, the renminbi. Let me put it to you thisway: despite assurances from China, the renminbi has only appreciated 1.8% inthe last two years. Is it not in China’s interest to allow for more significantappreciation?

Becauseright now, you are subsidizing exporters at the cost of the wages of theordinary Chinese workers. You’re risking some inflation. And it creates thevery lack of balance that you talk about. So, wouldn’t it be good for China toallow a more substantial appreciation of the renminbi?


WEN JIABAO, PREMIER OF CHINA: Allow me to make a comment on whatyou just said. I think your view still represents the view of the UnitedStates. Or, to be more specific, the view of a small number of members ofCongress of the United States.

The Chinese economy and the US economy are closelyinterconnected.

Our bilateral trade has already reached 300 billion U.S. dollars.US investment in China has exceeded 60 billion US dollars. China has purchasedUS T-Bonds worth about 900 billion US dollars.

No one will believe that the Chinese leadership does not followclosely the development of the US economy. Yet, some people in the UnitedStates, in particular some in the US Congress, do not know fully about China.They are politicizing the problems in China-US relations-in particular, thetrade imbalance between our two countries.

I don’t think this is the right thing to do.

I highly appreciate you giving me this opportunity of the interview,because you gave me the opportunity to further explain what the real situationis. There are three points which are not widely known with regard to exchangerate of RMB and China’s trade surplus.

First, China does not pursue a trade surplus.

Our objective in having foreign trade is to have balance andsustainable trade with other countries, and we want to have a basic equilibriumin our balance of payments. This is what we have been saying and doing.

In 2008, China’s surplus and current accounts ratio in GDP stoodat 9.9 percent. On 2009, that figure dropped to 5.8 percent. And in the firsthalf of 2010, that figure further declined to 2.2 percent.

Second, the increase of a trade surplus of a country is not necessarilylinked with the exchange policy of that country. We started the reform of RMB exchange rateregime back in the 1994. And since then,the Chinese currency has appreciated by 55 percent against the U.S. dollar.

And over the same time frame, the currencies of major economiesand currencies of China’s neighboring countries have all depreciated by a largemargin.

China’s trade has been growing fast over the same timeframe. Actually, there is a period like that in the history of the United States,too. In the almost 100 years between the1870s and 1970s, the United States was a surplus country.

And this is actually what would happen for a country in a certainstage of development.

The third point, which is a more important one and one that youare aware of, that is, the trade imbalance between our two countries is mainlystructural in nature. China runs a tradesurplus in processing trade but a deficit in general trade. China has a trade surplus in trade in goods,but a deficit in trade in services — in services.

We have a trade surplus with the United States and the EuropeanUnion, but a deficit with Japan, the ROK and ASEAN countries. Many of theChinese exports to the United States are no longer produced in the U.S. and Idon’t believe that the United States will restart the production of thoseproducts — products which are at the low end of the value added chain. Even if you don’t buy those products fromChina, you still have to buy them from India, Sri Lanka or Bangladesh. And that will not help resolve the tradeimbalance between our two countries.

I remember that you gave the example of iPod player in the UnitedStates. An iPod player is sold at $299 in the States. But the Chinese producer only gets $4 inprocessing fee.

There is another point that I think you may notbe aware of, a point that many of the members of the U.S. Congress are not awareof. That is, out of the 50,000 U.S. companies registered in China, 22,000 ofthem are export companies and to impose sanctions on export companies in Chinais tantamount to imposing sanctions on U.S. companies.


ZAKARIA:You know, the last time we talked, I, we, we, I asked you what books you werereading and what books you – you found interesting. Is there some thing, some book you’ve read inthe last few months that you .that has impressed you?


WEN: Well the books that are always on my shelves are books abouthistory because I believe history is like a mirror and I like to read bothChinese history and history of foreign countries.

There are two books that I often travel with. One is the Theoryon Moral Sentiments by Adam Smith. Theother is The Meditations.

It’s not that I agree with all the viewsexpressed in the books. But I believeideas and thoughts of older generation can offer food for thought for the currentgeneration. There are too many memoirs selling one-self nowadays. I don’t like reading those books. I believewhat a person should leave behind to the world is truth – something true. Andwe must recognize that even truthful will things will dissipate one day.”


ZAKARIA: Let me askyou, as our final question, Premier Wen. This has struck me as a — as anexample of your frankness. You have spokenof your determination to continue political reform despite obstructions within thecountry and within the party – despite opposition within the party. You’ve spoken of your fear that corruptionand inflation will erode social stability. You’ve praised Hu Yaobang and talked about the wise leadership heprovided, even though he was regarded by many as a — as a dangerously liberal leader.

Do you believe that the next generation ofChinese leaders, who will take power in – in two years, will share your outlookand keep trying to press the vision you are pressing forward?


WEN: You may thinkthat have you asked the toughest question today, but I think it is actually theeasiest question to answer. Let me maketwo points with regard to that future you referred to.
First, I would like to say that, as the Chinese saying goes,as the Yangtze River forges ahead waves upon waves, the new generation willinvariably surpass the old. I haveconfidence that future Chinese leadership will excel the previous one.

Second, it is the people and the strength of the people who determinethe future of the country and history. The wish and will of the people are not stoppable. Those who go along with the trend will thriveand those who go against the trend will fail.

Thank you for the interview.


ZAKARIA: It’s an honor and a pleasure. Thank you,Premier.


Comments are closed.